The Emotional Contract

Hard To Repair

Like many people, I've been struck by the controversy involving Apple and the FBI, and increasingly skeptical about how an incredibly common product could resist all of the world's criminals and cyber-security hackers. Also, how a company could not just be willing to take privacy to the point of providing aid and comfort to the individual over their government, even if that individual was a terrorist, criminal or murderer. I'm not sure how that jibes with supporting your local police or military, but that line just doesn't translate to the FBI. Anyway.

But no matter where you are on this issue, one aspect is absolutely clear. That's how Apple's brand has, to this point, taken no damage at all, really. To its users, the company has stood tall against public and law enforcement pressures to protect their individual interests and privacy. The emotional contract between the users and the brand remains perfect. Even with some prominent public figures calling for a boycott of the company.

And that, now that I've thought longer (and different?), is the best reason why Apple is going to fight this to, well, legality and beyond. The security issue is something that will eventually go away, because no platform ever stays completely secure, especially with this much scrutiny. But Apple's brand will endure, even if a side hack happens. So long as the company stays on message of their users coming first, and isn't revealed to capitulate in an underhanded manner, they'll suffer no real damage from this.

Now, let's consider Volkswagen. (Interestingly, not Audi or Porsche, who are part of the same corporate family, but haven't been painted with the same brush.) That company pitched itself as eco-conscious without a subsequent lapse of performance, through the use of diesel technology that passed all emissions standards. Until it was revealed that this was all a lie, thanks to the use of fraudulent software that only kicked in during testing. The cover up was elaborate, the benefit obvious, and the hubris involved in believing that the misdeed would never be found out was, frankly, well, stunning.

Overnight, VW owners lost value in their investments, because their cars were no longer attractive to, well, the kind of drivers that bought VW in the first place. Since the disclosure, VW has apologized, changed a great deal of personnel, swapped out marketing messages, and worked to fix the emissions issues before class-action and government watchdogs forced their hand. But whether or not this ever fixes the damage to the emotional contract, and helps the brand get back to their prior valuation, is a whole other matter entirely.

Thinking back on my own career and clients, I've had any number of wins and losses, with strong educational moments along the way in both directions... but I've never gotten a client back once an emotional contract had been broken.

No matter who broke it, really.

So it's not a phone, or even a great number of phones, or an operating system that Apple's trying to protect.

Rather, it's their idea of why their brand is valued the way that it is.

And how that's probably only got one direction to go.

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Feel free to comment, as well as like or share this column, connect with me on LinkedIn, or email me at davidlmountain at gmail dot com, or hit the RFP boxes at top right. RFPs are always free, and we hope to hear from you soon.

The Nerds Have Won, And Will Continue Winning

Cut It Fine

This month in my free time -- well, the time stolen from sleeping -- I'll prepare for my fantasy baseball draft. It's something that I've done for much of my adult life, and the way it has changed over the years has been fairly interesting. The game itself has changed dramatically over time, from the steroid and easy hitter parks of previous decades to today's pitcher-centric era. There used to be 40-home run per year hitters; now, you're lucky to get to 30. Starting pitchers used to get to complete games more than rarely; now, almost never. The best relief pitchers used to be the guys that closed the games, and now, not always. And so on, and so on. But that's not the point I'm looking to make here, nor the reason why this has anything to do with marketing and advertising.

What you are trying to do in a fantasy sports league isn't to get the most hitters that break a certain home run threshold, or starting pitchers with the most complete games, or even the "best" team. Rather, you are trying to achieve results above the median, and to have those results culminate in a best in class performance. (Sounds like fun, doesn't it?)

That's never really changed for fantasy players, but what's new is how that mindset has worked its way into the game itself. "Moneyball" wasn't just an influential book and rather well-regarded movie; it really was a clarion call to how a market that was less than perfect in its efficiency was, well, going to become a lot more competitive.

Now, the growth metric and talent evaluation in baseball isn't on base level counting statistics. Instead, it's in percentages above the median, increasingly esoteric evaluations of fielding and defense (especially in how catchers "frame" pitches), base running benefits that go beyond just stealing bases, and so on, and so on. 

Back to our world.

It's rare, in today's digital marketing environment, that you'll just run a single channel or medium, and absolutely know the impact of the campaign. Emails inspire search results, which feed banner response, which rolls into your social media campaigns, and so on, and so on. So simple metrics like open and click rates, or even more powerful ones like revenue tracked by channel, may not give you the full story of what's working, and what isn't... or, more importantly, what's working, but only 20 to 30% as well as it should be, and might be easily actionable.

Which means that, just like in baseball, the role of the people who can recognize talent, or do game-changing things, is not all that different from what it was before. It's just being supplemented by increasingly complex analytical exercises, for the plain and simple reason that this is where the wins will come from. 

That, and a fairly strong amount of luck, in regards to who gets hurt and when. (OK, maybe baseball and marketing aren't quite the same after all.)

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Feel free to comment, as well as like or share this column, connect with me on LinkedIn, or email me at davidlmountain at gmail dot com, or hit the RFP boxes at top right. RFPs are always free, and we hope to hear from you soon.

U.B.I.llin'

Staff Us Up

Here's a pretty fascinating story from the NY Times, and it plays off a longstanding concern of mine, as well as lots of people who work in marketing and advertising.

To wit... to date, technology hasn't *really* destroyed (many) of our jobs. Sure, designers and copywriters now get to "compete" with people from all over the world, which means that it's becoming more and more difficult to make a living, or justify doing this rather than flipping burgers... but the job still actually exists.

Unlike, say, the people who used to make or develop film for cameras, flashlights instead of cell phone apps, cassette tapes or CDs or DVDs, and so on. You might have a career that has felt increasingly more insecure, or one that has been less and less lucrative, or involve more and more free-lancing and hustling, but it's still a gig.

But just because the job exists now, doesn't mean it will continue. And when the gigs go away, what happens next?

Well, this is where we need to think beyond how the world is now, and try to get past our natural human reaction to always assume the worst of progress or people... and to think about, say, what the world might look like when it is very, very different.

Say, with ubiquitous renewable energy, and maybe it's so efficient and paid for, over such a long period of time, that no one *has* to pay for it any more. Kind of like how long distance telephone bills used to be a big deal, and now, well, aren't.

Where genetic research, and maybe even therapy, allows us to simply correct chronic conditions, rather than continually pay to manage them.

Where every child is planned, and populations managed, with humanity maybe not even confined to the surface of the Earth. Which means all kinds of disruption to real estate and housing.

Where technology eliminates the need for massive military expenditures, or stops putting humanity at direct risk.

Where travel becomes easier, either through self-driving (and maybe also flying?) technology, once again powered by the limitless energy. Or, more fancifully, with teleportation.

Which means that it's not just your job that's at risk.

It's everyone's.

That's a world where it's possible that the pursuit of money just might not be, well, how the world works. Remember, we're talking about limitless energy assets, massive developments in computing power, spectacular advancements in communications and so on. But the transition from the current world of 1% / 99% to a money-free "Star Trek"-esque utopia won't be easy or smooth, so what's being increasingly considered is a kind of dividend payment. Some economists call this Universal Basic Income, or UBI.

Rather than as a welfare payment, it's better to think of such things as if you were, say, a resident of Saudi Arabia or Alaska, where oil companies pay the residents a portion of their revenue as part of a prior arrangement. Or members of a Native American tribe with casinos. It's basically similar. (Also, perhaps not great for overall happiness. Hard to say, really.)

If all of this seems very naive or promoting a particular agenda, keep in mind that the concept isn't beholden to a political party or philosophic leaning. Rather, it simply reflects the reality that any job that can be taken away by technology probably, well, will.

And, finally, this...

If you didn't have to work for a living, because technology gave you everything you ever wanted and needed, and money didn't exist as a scoreboard or necessity to provide for yourself and your family...

What would you do with your time instead?

(Me? Probably the same job as now, because the writing is who I am. But don't tell my clients or employers, because it really doesn't do much for my leverage in contract negotiations...)

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Feel free to comment, as well as like or share this column, connect with me on LinkedIn, or email me at davidlmountain at gmail dot com, or hit the RFP boxes at top right. RFPs are always free, and we hope to hear from you soon.