Five Predictions For Mobile Ads, Based On A Life In Online Ads

300 Baud, Aw Hell Yeah

Some days, Dear Reader, I feel like I'm living in a movie. Or, more accurately, a remake. (See that sweet machine above the header? My first ride. Made money with it online, in 1985. No, seriously.)

Anyway... having made money from online advertising for the past 15 years, I've seen enough iterations to recognize patterns that will repeat. So here's five predictions about mobile that are really more about market forces, rather than the medium. Let's get into it.

1) Direct response will flatten

Every time someone invents a new way to advertise (expandable, mobile, native, video, etc.), sales for that method triumph the numbers as the New Best Thing, sure to eradicate older methods. And mobile has spiked higher than most, just because it's got the newness factor multiplied by the fact that it's much easier to respond in error. (Just consider if you've ever "butt dialed" anything on a laptop.)

But beyond UI issues, the history of response in a new platform or market is clear. You can get 10X CTR today by just showing your ad in China, and I guarantee you that there will be spectacular old-time response metrics in Cuba or North Korea when regime change makes interactivity commonplace. Mobile is the same. It will start hot, then flatten to a true level of responsiveness, and from there, the metrics will be more about deliverability and viewability, rather than the method.

So mobile response is a nice story now, but in the long term, it won't be any different than what we already know. T'was ever such, and will always be.

2) A new production standard for publishers and consumers will take over.

A small history lesson. Flash backed into being the de facto standard for online ad work, because HTML4 loaded in a piecemeal fashion, and Web connection speed used to be such a concern. (Still is, depending on where you are, and the quality of your Wifi. But I digress.) The other great problem with Flash is that it's backwards compatible, which means that it's increasingly insecure to black hat coding.

HTML5, the new standard that's more and more common on a daily basis (mostly because it plays nicely with mobile, and HTML4 does not) is said to not have the piecemeal loading issue. It also avoids much of the legacy coding problems, since it's only a few years old. For some time, some skeptics believed that publishers and back-end networks would prevent the transition, and that the long tail of Flash would run for years more. But with recent malware infestations in Flash coding, along with the clear and present advantages of easier video and mobile, that friction will be overcome. Besides, it's not as if anyone is still on dial-up.

3) The 80/20 rule will repeat (and it's more like 90/10).

Pity the poor coder and QA people. So many formats to check, and so little time to make sure they all work out! The only issue here is that sentence could have been said about browsers from 10+ years ago, email from 5+ years ago, or mobile today.

What will happen is that the industry will design for a handful of market share leaders (iPad, iPhone, Android), and give short shrift to less prevalent players. This will only change if and when the world changes. Coding and designing for a wide range of formats has never been an optimal way to work, and isn't going to start now.

4) Personalized creative will dominate.

At the start of the century, there was pushback about how behaviorally targeted ads were too personal, especially in sensitive categories like pharma and services. Five years ago, the same objections were brought up about dynamic retargeting and remarketing for e-commerce. Now, it's a question of cyber-stalking and geo-targeting causing a backlash on mobile.

The commonality is that information about the individual user, when utilized in the ad unit, is said to cross a line of privacy or propriety. While I'm sensitive to the fact that this does occur on the individual level, there's no great evidence that this is a mass public concern. Especially if frequency is capped, or the user has the ability to opt out of receiving similar messages.

In other words, it's similar to the many prediction of doom that have been set to social network advertising, and how those can't possibly keep making money, once everyone gets outraged and deletes their profile over privacy issues. There just isn't a special level of distaste for this kind of advertising, and there won't be in mobile, either. So the market will gravitate to it, for the simple reason that it works better.

5) Brand marketing benefits will continue to be disregarded.

This is such an ingrained attitude at the agency level that I just can't see it changing for another generation. The need to tell a story in long-form video in broadcast media, with high frequency, will go away once the data gets to the last mile of narrowcasting, and social media backlash might cause some brands to shy away from high repetition campaigns. But there's still something to be said for the security for brands in the 30-second slot during a must-see live event, and that reach and impact will continue to trump the drip-drip-drip saturation pattern of pre-roll spots over the diaspora of individual channels.

It hasn't mattered, up to now, that the Internet has been the only way to reach the affluent for the prime waking hours of their day (i.e., at work and cyberslacking). It hasn't mattered that mass broadcast audiences have continued to disintegrate, or that younger audiences are increasingly unlikely to ever be in front of that big set screen. Mobile will be like desktop/laptop, in that we will measure the metrics and share them with our clients. And if you can measure it, the brand marketing benefits are forgotten, because having the data just prevents any other thought pattern from coming to the surface. Maybe in another ten years.

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You've read this far, so by all means, connect with me personally on LinkedIn.You can always email me at davidlmountain at gmail.com. And, as always, I'd love to hear what you think about this in the comments.