That Which Cannot Continue

Herb Me

This week at my day job and on my social feeds, I've been struck by the following.

> The possibility, however remote, that something might actually change in the realm of gun control in this country following a massacre. It's certainly not how you'd bet, but there's actually some hope now that people who aren't allowed to fly also won't be allowed to buy weapons of mass murder. Baby steps.

> News from California that voters will have a referendum on the ballot that would make big money domination of political advertising difficult through a punitive tax on placements. And it's hard to see how a law like that wouldn't pass at the ballot box, honestly.

> News from Philadelphia of a vice-level tax on full calorie and diet sodas, with the revenue set to aid a wide range of programs, but most especially education.

Now, all of these points go against heavily moneyed interests to the cause of inertia. The NRA has steadfastly refused any movement on any number of laws, as they've more or less made the tactical decision to oppose any possibility of less coverage. They've been successful in getting more, not less, with state and local changes that have contributed, frankly, to a massive increase in sales. And a despair that anything can change.

In re California, the feeling in many political circles has been that money will rule, with only the tsunami of social media and outsider candidates causing a brief respite, albeit in ways that hardly seemed like progress. A punitive tax, while an obvious target for legal challenge, could be wildly popular, and California is a leading indicator on any number of trends.

Finally, the soda tax. It's not so much what it represents -- soda has been losing market share for decades now, as people look for more healthy choices -- but how it could open the floodgates to all manner of other punitive measures. Sin taxes have been in place for adult pleasures for decades, but if we extend to soda, fast food, junk food... well, it's not exactly the social change that some may dream of. But if we get healthier as a nation and planet, maybe the ends justify the means. More importantly, a great problem for the nation, in re obesity issues and rising rates of diabetes, might lessen.

Gun deaths, political ads and obesity. Terrible problems, seemingly unsolvable, now all in the cross hairs of possible change. Hope springs eternal, right?

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Fun With Twitter Data

Probably Not Actually Failing

OK, I have odd ideas of fun. But still, have you seen the Nielsen review of the 2015-16 TV season's most tweeted moments? It's a pretty great view into what people are talking about, and when, and should be required reading for anyone in marketing and advertising.

The most telling point to me is how much live sports drives Twitter, and how NFL football drives live sports. The Super Bowl got nearly as many tweets as the rest of the top 10 events, with six of the top ten events also being, well, football. This also came with the game being something of a snore this year, though it's a compelling point to wonder if a competitive game makes for more or less Tweets. I know from my own experience that my Twitter use will increase when the game is out of hand, because the telecast just isn't occupying my attention as much.

We've also got to assume that as the world continues to move from laptop to mobile (and to a lesser extent, tablet), that these counts still have some way to go. Whether that's on Twitter or not is another matter, as social media networks seem to have a shelf life, and Twitter's growth has been slowing year over year. Still, I'd have to guess we're at least 2-3 years away from a peak usage, given the growth in non-U.S. traffic, and Twitter's increasing use of emoji and non-typed content, along with longer Tweets. (Note how much capacity for growth seems to occur from greater Twittering about, say, soccer.)

There's also the possibility that we're missing a major factor in this set of data, which is the lack of the NBA Finals. The data runs from August 31, 2015 to May 29, 2016, or a period of time that almost perfectly excludes the June finals. Especially with the interest shown in this year's teams and top players, and the controversy involving suspensions. If my theory holds true to non-competitive games provoking more usage, this year's NBA Finals in particular may be through the roof. Or whether the US Presidential campaign also turns into an event push for Twitter. (So far, that seems more like a Facebook experience, which also seems to be a demographic phenomenon.)

Where this becomes truly intriguing is how it monetizes from a marketing and advertising standpoint. Social media use could be seen as something along the lines of live + DVR traffic, with greater broadcast spends justified by the apparent use. Broadcasts without a Twitter tail could also be seen as a softer spend, with easier to negotiate levels. Or, at least, this is how I'd spin it if I were negotiating for a client. Whether it's a successful tactic or not is another matter.

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Feel free to comment, as well as like or share this column, connect with me on LinkedIn, or email me at davidlmountain at gmail dot com, or hit the RFP boxes at top right. RFPs are always free, and we hope to hear from you soon.

Guns: A Disaster-Proof Industry

Once More Without Feeling

I might lose some business from this, but so be it. Sometimes, you've got to be willing to walk away from money.

Besides, how likely is it that gun manufacturers or the National Rifle Association actually need marketing and advertising assistance, really?

Yesterday's news from Orlando, where an armed gunman was able to kill 50 people in a gay nightclub with a handgun and an assault rifle in the most deadly shooting in American history, is all over the news as I sat to write tonight's column. This kind of event happens so routinely in this nation now that we've got all of the reactions down cold -- demands for gun control that will never go into effect, demands for increased carry liberties in the naive hope that non-maniacs will somehow limit the death toll through exceptional marksmanship in chaos -- and a well-known cycle of thoughts and prayers, debate that goes nowhere, and soon enough, another tragedy. The idea that we'd be able, as a country, to do anything about this after 50 adults died in Orlando, when we weren't able to do anything after 26 were killed at Sandy Hook Elementary, 20 of them children, is ludicrous.

So, to bring this around to a marketing and advertising perspective... is there a single industry, ever, where disasters improve the bottom line of the industry and lobbying efforts of the companies who seem, well, at least tangentially responsible?

Gun sales have gone through the roof during the presidency of Barack Obama, who has, whether you think this is a coincidence or act of heroism from the NRA, seized no guns from no one. Sales spike after every massacre, because the belief among the true believers is always that this will be the one that sparks a legislative or executive order, but honestly, gun buyers should just relax and avoid the rush. We see people dead from these kinds of events all the time now. No reason to ever rush to the gun store.

It's also hard to imagine that this would be a defensible hobby or lifestyle choice if it were, well, novel. Imagine if guns were a new invention, and not mentioned in the Constitution, how successful they'd be as an industry. Vaping technology, frankly, seems more highly regulated. Despite the dramatic differences in death counts.

We also can, frankly, dispatch with any comparison to the relative regulation of automobiles (frequent testing, technology upgrades to prevent tragedies, strong administrative oversight through state department of motor vehicles and police enforcement) to guns (loopholes all over, objections to simple counts from the Center for Disease Control, "smart gun" tech blocked at an industry level, background checks more or less stalled in Congress despite strong majority approval, even from NRA members), That hasn't mattered up to now, so why would things be different with another few dozen dead? Better to focus on the motives of the killer, which will easily distract with fear of a religious or ethnic minority. Because the fact that the tools are always the same is somehow not relevant.

So, to sum up. Disasters increase your bottom line in the short term. No disaster ever increases your risk of long-term sales. The rate of disasters is ever-rising, and the answer for every disaster at the individual level is to buy your product. With social media fervent that makes your target (sorry) demographic always have a sense of urgency to buy.

What an incredible business, selling guns. With no end to the good times!

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Feel free to comment, as well as like or share this column, connect with me on LinkedIn, or email me at davidlmountain at gmail dot com, or hit the RFP boxes at top right. RFPs are always free, and we hope to hear from you soon.