Thursday, October 21, 2021

The Trends In Our Stars

I was reading a trends report (not going to say whose) the other day, and it triggered a few thoughts. In no particular order...

> Brands that never touch political issues are projecting fear and/or complicity. They also could easily lose out on marketing to young buyers who aren't purely focused on price (i.e., the buyers they want). The math for high growth is with the brave, folks.

Perhaps you think corporations that beat their chest about sustainability are just virtue signaling. Maybe you are skeptical about eco-first products as just different items in the landfill, or that privacy is a myth in the current era. But the reality is those views aren't going to help you with new to market in beauty, banking, or a host of other categories where younger consumers are forming buying trends that will last a lifetime. 

> High-growth brands stand for things. Consider the doom saying for Nike when they took on Colin Kaepernick; hasn't hurt the brand at all. (Massive understatement.) Or Patagonia and the North Face on opposing the climate policies of the previous administration. You'll likely see the same thing with vaccine mandates moving forward. Whether this relates to, say, a talent walkout at Tesla for moving to Texas despite (or because of?) the actions of the Texas Governor and Legislature, or people opting out of Florida travel, is a wait and see moment. But once again, safe decisions may not be, well, all that safe. Stand for nothing? Fall for anything.

> Diversity isn't optional. (Even in small teams.) I've worked at companies that failed on this mark, and, well, they weren't good places to work. It's becoming increasingly uncomfortable when a workspace is behind the times on this, and teams that aren't diverse are just more likely to miss points (or, maybe even worse, veer deeply into cautionary tactics and go too slow). 

> There's going to be math. More and more businesses are looking at creative with a need to know how they performed, which can be problematic for a host of reasons... but the core of the idea is sound, even if the execution isn't always nuanced enough. I can tell you from personal experience that when you used to talk stat sig with creative personnel, many of them looked at you as if you were scary and in the wrong room. Now, they are interested (and, well, still scared). Besides, once you take the math toothpaste out of the tube, it's not going back in.

> You probably should stop thinking about linear customer journeys. The idea that you can roll out a campaign by channel and "know" that such and such a piece is going to close the deal... well, I get that the Old World has its charms, but it's not coming back, folks. Your prospect is going to mix and match channels and platforms to their taste (some social, some search, some email, some will see display, broadcast, podcast, etc.), and that dumb thing you were doing with last-click gets all the credit... well, it's even dumber now. Measure everything, but know that nuance and brand development likely exist outside your spreadsheet.

> Marketing people are being forced to collaborate (whether they want to or not). This has been accelerated by remote work, which is lonely and harder to QA. 

Point of order: during the writing of this piece, I wound up having to drop everything for an hour to deal with laundry, pets, a cleaning project and food prep. No wonder the QA's harder, yes?

It's also harder to work this way, since you can't read body language to go softer or harder on decisions. This could also be a factor in the Great Resignation trends among junior levels. But the plain and simple is, as it's always been -- great, fast, cheap. Pick two, and collaborate accordingly. 

> It's all getting faster. I'd say more about this, but, well... is anyone really disagreeing?

Friday, October 15, 2021

Five Good Minutes

 The folks at Daily Ad Brief reached out to discuss the future of online advertising and such. Take a view (and see if you can find the Easter egg mistake).




Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Five Half Year Takeaways

Folks -- Thanks to terrible Web hosting service and three high volume clients, we haven't had much of a chance or ability to add to the blog recently. So consider this to be a six-month catchup of what we've learned by doing.

5) It's a 2 (Point Five?) -for-1 year.

From my spouse's harp work to email copywriting and event planning, the pent-up demand from 2020 is just causing a lot of asks in a short period of time. 

It's not that everything is fine and dandy now -- supply chains are still a mess, shortages and price spikes are giving pause, and the specter of a Covid backlash from the Delta variant and over a year of big fear is keeping some still on the sidelines -- but the thirst for doing is strong.

4) Email is going to have seismic shifts.

Open rates have been under siege for a while now, but with third-party cookie verification being put on a slow track to extinction, that metric is going to become pointless. Judging emails just by click rates is going to take some air out of channel, and creative personnel are not sitting on AR/VR assets and best practices to juice the CTR. Combine this with ever-shrinking use of the channel by younger and time-stressed users, and you've got bad times for an old reliable channel. (Short term, at least.)

3) For many, the pandemic is firmly in the rear-view mirror.

I was at a corporate event in late spring that was scheduled for an outdoor space to be Covid safe. During the event, persistent rain kept everyone inside... and they all packed together, talked loudly to each other (you had to), and more or less went back to 2019 in minutes.

Sure, maybe the event was already pre-populating with people who were vaccinated and confident, or just starved for IRL companionship. But this wasn't a small crowd, or a timid one. 

2) Antitrust is having a very large moment.

There are a number of bills in Congress right now that actually have bipartisan traction as both political parties have an axe to grind against (Very) Big Tech... and almost as if they were hoping to pull off one more big heist before retiring, Apple and Google and Facebook have all moved to control ad targeting (while shutting it down for others).

It's always safe to bet on inertia when Congress is involved. Until, well, it isn't.

1) Retargeting was math-smart and world-foolish, with pain to follow.

If you judge creatives strictly on last-click attribution (hint: do not do this), then you probably wound up approving art that looked a lot like Criteo for most of the last decade -- which is to say basic and utilitarian dynamic boxes with a creepy 30-day stalker window of a product that you almost bought but didn't.

By the math, you were smart to do this, because hey presto, more clicks for this, less for everything else. Good for you with your math skills.

But you also find yourself in 2021 with the public *hating* your ads and that targeting method, so much so that there is popular support for giving even more negotiating power to the richest companies in the world?

Well, um, maybe there's more than math to this. Maybe you should have looked at capping frequencies, or running second-best executions more often to limit burnout. Maybe you could have cut into that 30-day magic window and looked at tighter times (yes, 7 and 15-day for most consumer categories). 

I'm not sure what's the next move to make for this industry. Criteo's not going to go away without a fight, and people aren't going to lose their most effective creative by math without complaint. But if your way to do this goes away, or people expect it to go away and complain to their platforms... 

Well, once again, things that can't continue eventually don't.

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If you'd like to talk to us more about any of the above, feel free to reach out. We've got bandwidth and even more tricks up our sleeves than before.

Best -- DMt