Trump Wins, And Attack Ads Lose

Attack Ad Proof?

Tonight in Indiana, the Republican presidential primary more or less ended, as Donald Trump's end game victory over Senator Ted Cruz led to a suspension of the Senator's campaign. While Trump won't acquire the delegates needed until the final states vote in less than a month to wrap things up, and Ohio governor John Kasich seems ready to soldier on in the hopes of an 11th hour reversal, it seems fairly academic now. A man who has never served in elective office is the presumptive nominee of one of the two major political parties for the American Presidency.

There will be a great deal of Monday morning quarterbacking as to how this all happened. There were plenty of factors. Too many candidates that were too similar early, which helped to splinter the non-Trump vote. A media that could never say no to a Trump appearance, leading to earned promotional benefits that dwarfed all other coverage. Trump's willingness to avoid canned stump speeches and predictability, ensuring more attention. A built-in competency at media manipulation, and an ability to bring in untapped voters to a larger tent, particularly in states with open primaries. A never-ending side show of outrage, controversy, late night humor fodder and red meat for the base, all of which meant that the story was rarely, if ever, anything but Trump. Add it all up, and it lead to a narrative of inevitability, and a political season that will dominate future textbooks.

But you read me for marketing and advertising, and what this campaign has proven, more than anything else to me, is the growing ineffectiveness of traditional political spots.

In state after state, the stop Trump PACs trotted out an absurd number of ads that never seemed to slow the candidate's momentum. While they might have contributed to the candidate's overall unfavorable ratings, or kept Trump from reaching majorities until later in the campaign, they rarely got to a point of real effectiveness. When rivals attacked Trump directly, the damage always seemed to come in reverse.

Consider the states where Trump actually suffered setbacks. Wisconsin, where an infrastructure of talk radio and a very active electorate gave Cruz his last meaningful win. Iowa, where caucuses played to Cruz's ground game advantage. Texas and Ohio, where Cruz and Kasich kept home field advantage. A number of smaller states, particularly in the rural West, where politics tends to be a personal and retail experience.

In none of these places was an air game of attack ads effective in stopping the real estate mogul. Even ads that seemed effective, like a spot where women read seemingly damming quotes from the candidate's own mouth, and made Trump himself wince on the podium, had no effect.

Why? Well, it's fairly simple, and also plainly terrifying to media networks: no one really watches television commercials any more. Especially outside of live DVR-proof events like sports or, well, debates. We're all ready to click off to something else, or eschew live television entirely.

So what actually works now? Social media, which Trump's campaign took to like a duck to water. Word of mouth, which is especially effective when a campaign activates someone who normally doesn't engage in politics. Again, a strength for Trump over his rivals. Email marketing that seems new, and different, and novel... and since Trump didn't push for donations, that, again, qualified.

Will it work in the long run? The betting professionals don't think so, and you generally have to respect those folks, because of their track record. But few thought Trump would get this far, and no one has put a lasting hurt on him yet.

What I do know, however, is this: if Trump is finally stopped, and it isn't done through broadcast media spots, but through another marketing channel?

We will see very different campaigns in the future. Ones that the broadcast networks, or broadcast advertising pros, won't like nearly so much.

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