Making Money In Politics

Probably Not In Loose Bills

Like many people who do topical content, I'm really tired of feeling compelled to write about politics, especially Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for President... but, well, when things that have never happened before happen, it's pretty much impossible to not have it sneak into your work and thoughts. Especially as it relates to marketing and advertising.

The hype du jour comes from a seeming ad lib in which the candidate either implied about the assassination of his opponent, or was alluding to the political power of Second Amendment enthusiasts. And for the purpose of this column, it doesn't really matter about our opinion of the tactic, since it achieved the goal of "earned" media -- which is to say, a carrying of the news cycle.

The fact that this doesn't seem to be translating into votes -- at least, according to the various polls and trending analysis -- doesn't seem to be having that much impact on the candidate's fund raising, which pulled in $51 million in June, and $80 million in July... but with almost none of that cash going to TV ads. According to Business Insider, the Trump campaign has even been outspent by third-party candidates Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green).

Which leads me to wonder... well, what is the campaign spending the money on, since the single biggest expense of a presidential campaign is typically television ads?

As I write this, there are 91 days, or 13 weeks, left until the voters put this thing out of our collective misery. Historically in America, elections reach another level of hype and awareness to casual voters after Labor Day, but as you might have guessed by now, this isn't a typical election, if for no other reason that both major party principals have been very well-known public figures for decades. Minds are being made in the here and now, and media buying being what it is, it seems increasingly likely that the Trump campaign just isn't terribly concerned with reaching ad parity, at least not on television, or against the benefit of keeping campaign costs down.

This isn't without some minor and recent historical precedent. In 2004, John Kerry kept eight figures of revenue in reserve past Election Day for a legal challenge that never came, as the campaign said they were worried about a repeat of the Florida hanging chad experience. (A claim that, frankly, didn't pass the smell test, since it's not as if donors wouldn't have been energized by that news.)

But that campaign followed a typical media buying pattern, including extensive advertising in the primaries. Trump's approach has been to dominate programming, either with call-in interviews or created controversies.

And so long as we all play along -- which makes me really worry about what's coming down the pike to count as more noteworthy than what we've already seen -- it seems the candidate is content to let the Democrats control the paid air channel.

Partisan advocates note the increasing ineffectiveness of paid media, or how much social is driving the conversation now. Trump has also been highly active in banner , but I have a slightly different question to ask.

What if the entire exercise is just, well, to collect contributions... that the candidate is under no obligation to spend? Or return?

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