Trump Wins, And Attack Ads Lose

Attack Ad Proof?

Tonight in Indiana, the Republican presidential primary more or less ended, as Donald Trump's end game victory over Senator Ted Cruz led to a suspension of the Senator's campaign. While Trump won't acquire the delegates needed until the final states vote in less than a month to wrap things up, and Ohio governor John Kasich seems ready to soldier on in the hopes of an 11th hour reversal, it seems fairly academic now. A man who has never served in elective office is the presumptive nominee of one of the two major political parties for the American Presidency.

There will be a great deal of Monday morning quarterbacking as to how this all happened. There were plenty of factors. Too many candidates that were too similar early, which helped to splinter the non-Trump vote. A media that could never say no to a Trump appearance, leading to earned promotional benefits that dwarfed all other coverage. Trump's willingness to avoid canned stump speeches and predictability, ensuring more attention. A built-in competency at media manipulation, and an ability to bring in untapped voters to a larger tent, particularly in states with open primaries. A never-ending side show of outrage, controversy, late night humor fodder and red meat for the base, all of which meant that the story was rarely, if ever, anything but Trump. Add it all up, and it lead to a narrative of inevitability, and a political season that will dominate future textbooks.

But you read me for marketing and advertising, and what this campaign has proven, more than anything else to me, is the growing ineffectiveness of traditional political spots.

In state after state, the stop Trump PACs trotted out an absurd number of ads that never seemed to slow the candidate's momentum. While they might have contributed to the candidate's overall unfavorable ratings, or kept Trump from reaching majorities until later in the campaign, they rarely got to a point of real effectiveness. When rivals attacked Trump directly, the damage always seemed to come in reverse.

Consider the states where Trump actually suffered setbacks. Wisconsin, where an infrastructure of talk radio and a very active electorate gave Cruz his last meaningful win. Iowa, where caucuses played to Cruz's ground game advantage. Texas and Ohio, where Cruz and Kasich kept home field advantage. A number of smaller states, particularly in the rural West, where politics tends to be a personal and retail experience.

In none of these places was an air game of attack ads effective in stopping the real estate mogul. Even ads that seemed effective, like a spot where women read seemingly damming quotes from the candidate's own mouth, and made Trump himself wince on the podium, had no effect.

Why? Well, it's fairly simple, and also plainly terrifying to media networks: no one really watches television commercials any more. Especially outside of live DVR-proof events like sports or, well, debates. We're all ready to click off to something else, or eschew live television entirely.

So what actually works now? Social media, which Trump's campaign took to like a duck to water. Word of mouth, which is especially effective when a campaign activates someone who normally doesn't engage in politics. Again, a strength for Trump over his rivals. Email marketing that seems new, and different, and novel... and since Trump didn't push for donations, that, again, qualified.

Will it work in the long run? The betting professionals don't think so, and you generally have to respect those folks, because of their track record. But few thought Trump would get this far, and no one has put a lasting hurt on him yet.

What I do know, however, is this: if Trump is finally stopped, and it isn't done through broadcast media spots, but through another marketing channel?

We will see very different campaigns in the future. Ones that the broadcast networks, or broadcast advertising pros, won't like nearly so much.

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Feel free to comment, as well as like or share this column, connect with me on LinkedIn, or email me at davidlmountain at gmail dot com, or hit the RFP boxes at top right. RFPs are always free, and we hope to hear from you soon.

Heavy Rotation Hurting

They Aren't Kidding

(with apologies to one of the most influential skits ever, the great "Deep Hurting" riff from the Mad Scientists on "Mystery Science Theater 3000." See it here, if you haven't already.)

This weekend, I indulged my strongest sports addiction -- the NBA playoffs -- and was struck, as I am every year, by the relentless problem that is the marketing and advertising impact of broadcast media in real time, when combined with heavy time commitments.

It would be one thing if I were a fan of just, say, the Golden State Warriors. But I'm pretty much watching as many of these games as I can manage around the rest of my day, and seeing how I also maintain a sports blog, that's a lot of hoop... and a lot of the same commercials. Over. And over. And over.

Now, I understand that the demographics of pro hoop are a marketing gold mine. Affluent, diverse, national and international, tied across top tier channels and DVR-proof, with games that resolve in 2+ hours, with pretty consistent action and limited replay and injury breaks. It's one of an ever-decreasing number of places where you can be pretty sure your ads are being seen, in real time, with no skipping.

Which also means that, just like last year's too visible moments for daily fantasy league plays and direct to consumer pharmaceutical outlays in the NFL season, we're going to lose our minds over this. Tina Fey making payments with her Amex card, the head-scratching "Angry Birds" movie tie-in, testimonials to the DIY virtues of people who don't pay for satellite service, lather, rinse, repeat.

When I was a kid (pre-DVR and yes, per-VHS), watching re-runs was just something you did. From countless Bugs Bunny cartoons to prime-time shows, seeing something twice was just unavoidable, even if you complained about it, because, well, not much else to do. But now that commercials are a relatively rare phenomenon in the streaming age, repeats get your brand noticed, and I'd even argue, over-noticed. There are brands that I'm so aware of that I can't imagine feeling good about patronizing them, especially when my level of irritation with their ad campaigns is factored in. Even slightly modified ads with mildly different content would be something of a relief now. Especially as we've got another six weeks or so of the NBA playoffs to go.

So if you are in charge of one of these campaigns, I'm begging you... dial back the frequency. Mix in some other treatments. Reconsider your awkward game tie-ins with athletes interacting with your characters.

Because what you are doing is just painful in the extreme. And eventually leads to Adam Sandler's current career and reputation.

Deep Hurting. DEEP HURTING...

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Feel free to comment, as well as like or share this column, connect with me on LinkedIn, or email me at davidlmountain at gmail dot com, or hit the RFP boxes at top right. RFPs are always free, and we hope to hear from you soon.

More Games And Less NFL Draft, Please

Read Name, Lift Shirt, Repeat

Tonight, the NFL Draft started -- the first of a 3-day festival of Not Games that, in my lifetime, has somehow shed its original No One Really Watches This into untold hours of highly watched, well, content.

And while there is a certain Reality Show vibe to the proceedings that must appeal to people who are not me, especially when a highly touted player sees their standing slip, and stews about it on camera in a waiting room... you have to be way too into the proceedings to consider this exceptionally, well, entertaining. And I say this as a world-class football and sports nerd.

Still, well, the market has spoken, and with two networks covering it breathlessly, the goal of every other league is to replicate this success. But what I think the draft really shows isn't the broadcast potential for a long and delayed reading of names, but just how underserved the market is for professional football.

Thirty five years ago, the USFL generated ratings that were higher than MLB or NBA... despite being a brand-new league with no established rivalries, and relatively limited star power. Minor leagues with players that are not at the NFL level (aka, the Canadian Football League and the Arena Football variant) are stable and long-standing, which speaks to, well, profitability. There's even a women's league now, and immense interest at the college and high school level. If this was any other industry and any other market, more inventory from rival companies would flood the market. We are nowhere near satiety, as a nation, in our hunger for football.

But since the NFL is a protected monopoly, and the public buys into the idea that these other leagues -- particularly college -- has to exist, since they always have. As if the business of running a football team has much to do with the business of running a college. But what's really going on here is an unnaturally cautious business and an underserved market.

Imagine, if you will, two or three NFL tiers and separate leagues, with overlapping seasons. Not a minor league, and with teams that are not affiliated with each other, but with a clear tier situation (possibly by contract size) that passes champions up into higher tiers, and sends the worst teams down. Kind of like how most other nations (the English with soccer being the best example) handle wildly popular sports.

So instead of a draft, football fans would have, well, games to watch. Just about every week, with all of the games mattering, played under the same rules, in all kinds of cities, both "major" and minor.  With players that, eventually, even casual fans would have heard of, or maybe followed for a longer period of their lives. The average NFL career is only about four years, mostly because there are hundreds of younger and cheaper players trying to take the jobs of older players every year. Also, well, injuries.

We'd have fantasy leagues all year long. Much more in the way of gambling and live stadium action and commerce. An impetus to get colleges out of the business of football. A significant amount of jobs created, and a strong corrective market force to teams that try to move away for sweeter stadium deals. More live content with prime advertising opportunities, and programs with ratings that will likely outperform other live sporting events. A much more fluid situation that would lead to teams in non-U.S. markets. In other words, a correct market, with all of the good that our capitalistic hearts yearn for.

Instead, we've got artificial scarcity. Cities like St. Louis losing teams, with Oakland and San Diego likely to follow, with no idea if or when they'll ever be replaced. Advertising opportunities that only exist in one season. De facto subsidies of basic cable channels by the entire populace, instead of just the people that, well, want to watch football.

And people spending half a week of their lives to watch a very slow reading of a list of names.

So. Honestly. To anyone who is really into the draft, one simple question:

Wouldn't you rather be watching football?

And if the answer to that is yes, why aren't you asking the NFL to stop being such communists and expand?

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Feel free to comment, as well as like or share this column, connect with me on LinkedIn, or email me at davidlmountain at gmail dot com, or hit the RFP boxes at top right. RFPs are always free, and we hope to hear from you soon.