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| Solution: No Basement |
This was delivered without winks or humor, in the earshot of the affected kids. They reacted to the pronouncement with the practiced shrug that you only really perfect as a teenager. But knowing the parents in question as I do, I know they are absolutely serious, and that this is what is going to happen. This is a family that's going to go from a 3-bedroom house to a 1-bedroom as soon as they can, for the clear and simple reason that the house they pay a mortgage to hasn't increased in value, and they have no great faith in the idea that their kids are going to go to school and get out without long-term debt.And that, if they have the option to return after school, they will.
This is where you can pivot, if you like, to a political point about various presidential campaigns, or something about the housing market, or the cost of education. But as the goal of this column is, as always, to discuss marketing and advertising concerns, we're going to pivot to aspects that may be of value in your day to day. Namely:
1) Millennials are going to be co-habitating longer. When I was in my 20s, I spent about five years in the range of having housemates, before my relationships got serious enough to transition to, well, housing with benefits. Maybe that time doubles, or even stays that way after marriage. Which means that your direct mail efforts to that demographic are going to continue to draw lower effectiveness, since the churn isn't going to stop any time soon. That's independent of the demographic not really responding to direct mail in the first place.
2) The small house movement isn't going away, either. While my friends might not be willing to house their offspring into their 20s, and may be aggressively moving to prevent it, that also means that products with a big footprint are also going to be fighting market forces. Combination appliances, space savers, furniture that moves or folds or has additional storage... these are all on the side of the angels. Along with, well, storage service areas.
3) Disruptive technologies that save money, and generic brands, will continue to gain market share. While the affluent might still buy on brand or for a premium experience, Millennials and their parents aren't going to go back to old and more profligate ways of spending. They can't.
4) Retirement isn't seen as an out, either. No one in this demographic class seems to think they've got a pension, good 401K plan, iron-clad stocks or bonds, or anything beyond lottery dreams to get them into a traditional view of one's golden years. Maybe their kids eventually get to prosperity and can help, but pragmatism and just getting through the next year, then the one after that, is seen as far more relevant.
5) Technology makes diaspora much easier. In the past, people like these would be bound to an area from their friends and family, along with their property holdings. Now, thanks to social media, even those who have been in the same place for a long time do not feel obligated to remain there. When long distance phone bills no longer exist, and everyone can stay in touch in ways that were not popular even a decade ago, scattering for low housing costs and a more pleasing population density holds far less sting.
If all of this sounds sad and limiting, I won't disagree with you. My own children aren't as close to their college years, so maybe I haven't been as worn down by their teen age behavior as I will be later... but the idea of forcing a move so that I can prevent their return seems draconian.
But give me another five years, and more time where my home remains underwater, and maybe I get there, too.
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